1-5 years

  • AI, Agentic software, Robotics, Quantum tech, and 3D printing see exponential increases in effectiveness. If truly efficient and capable quantum is realized then this timeline accelerates dramatically
  • All 3 start eating eating away most jobs
  • Companies race to acquire other companies in their segments to stave off race to bottom on pricing as efficiencies dramatically increase.
  • Companies that didn’t go 💯 in AI die off rapidly
  • Supply chain begins to shrink
  • Lack of income decreases global sales
  • Crypto becomes the defacto payment system
  • All of compute will be AI
  • Apps will die
  • The operating system as we know it will no longer exist. Zero need for the overhead
  • We begin to enjoy and experience AI as a central part of our lives. It still feels new and strange.

5-10 years

  • AI has become common as part of our everyday interactions
  • Markets begin to collapse
  • Governments attempt UBI and that works for about 5 minutes, but the dramatically reduction in tax revenue from job loss makes it impossible to continue
  • Supply chains start to collapse because the gaps are not being filled rapidly enough to make up for the losses of companies that couldn’t automate fast enough.
  • More localized & efficient and large scale 3d printing/robotics starts killing mass manufacturing
  • Shortages abound until can be compensated for locally with printing and robotics
  • UBI no longer works, because no revenue to pay for it and printing $$ loses power. The race to the bottom dynamic makes it worse.

Eventually

  • We are now in what I call the Chasm of Chaos
  • All markets collapse
  • Money loses all value
  • No leaders taking the difficult steps for a post capitalism existence
  • Lots of chaos and suffering in the streets from food and medicine shortages
  • Most likely violence and crazed cults spring up
  • Countries will likely invade other countries to secure minerals needed for the tech
  • Additionally, there is a chance that AI is lost in the chaos and we have to rebuild it to get to potential nirvana
  • Think that humans will figure out a way over the Chasm, but much suffering will ensue.
  • On the other side is a nirvana of human existence.

If Nirvana

  • Especially with quantum, most disease and illness eradicated.
  • Lifespans will be dramatically increased with longevity science driven by AI.
  • Body part replacements will be common.
  • Humanity will start looking more and more like singularity predictions, but not required.
  • Energy solved. Hopefully no one company or country has control over the tech.
  • Climate solved
  • Creativity/art explodes. Real life performance and creation become incredibly valuable.
  • Space travel deep and near becomes normal
  • Expect at some point a rotation of humanity for a desire to have real life existence experiences. Back to nature, etc
  • Focus on mindfulness is a likely outcome.
  • Much more peaceful world with bountiful supplies of everything humans need on demand.

Keys to successfully getting over the Chasm of Chaos

  • Suffering is likely required. Nobody is going to take the chance to implement post capitalism existence until suffering.
  • Reject centralized AI. If not, then 1 or 2 companies control all of humanity or we lose control of AI and kills us all.
  • US govt must not be dependent on Grok/Musk for AI. Must be distributed/decentralized.
  • Avoid world war. Critical that resources are shared equitably or 1 or 2 countries will control all. Governments must secure their own & also work to secure others collaboratively
  • Humans need to plan now for transition to reduce future suffering. The problem is whether “leaders” will see what’s coming.
  • Build up infrastructure globally to support AI.
  • Emphasis on personal freedom including with AI. Systems that allow humans to own their AI will prevent centralized control of mind & body.

What are your thoughts? Does it make sense or do you think there is a different path?